As an accountant, I love numbers (yes… I know I’m weird). With horses being horses, you can’t predict the outcome of the games with simply numbers but you sure can try!
Looking at all WEGs/Olympics since 2002, here is a chart of the final scores to medal (gold, silver, bronze) individually:
Interesting to note that the individual medalists in Hong Kong (2008) all had dressage scores of 40.2 or better, but time was extremely difficult to make causing higher scores for individual medalists than any of the other games.
The average score to medal individual of all those games was 44.8 for gold, 48.8 for silver and 50.1 for bronze.
Remember that at Olympic Games you do 2 showjump rounds for individual medals since the IOC will not award 2 medals for one performance. Therefore, you would expect individual scores to be slightly higher in those situations.
The team showjump rounds will be 1.25m per the FEI (same as CCI****s), but the individual showjumping will be at 1.30m. A good jumping horse is a must!
And the final team scores to medal historically:
You would expect Olympics to have slightly lower team scores, due to having 5 riders (3 scores to count) vs 4 riders (3 scores to count)… this likely would have held true without the time penalties noted above.
The average score for a team medal of all of those games was 155 for Gold, 167.2 for Silver and 176.5 for Bronze. This suggests that each of the 3 scores to count need to average 51.6 to 58.5 to medal.
As nearly every team in London has the potential to pull this off – it is bound to be an exciting 4 days. GO CANADA!